| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.7% | 83% | -7.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| logistic | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| Daniel Michalski | Alexander Weis | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1598 | 1486 |
| Surface Elo | 1598 | 1486 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Ivan Ivanov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Giovanni Oradini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Alessandro Bellifemine | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Lorenzo Bocchi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Andrey Chepelev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Gabriele Crivellaro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Rares Teodor Pieleanu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Fausto Tabacco | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Nikita Mashtakov | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.21 | 82.6% | 11 Oct 06:15 |