| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.2% | 58% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.1% | 49.8% |
| logistic | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Radu Mihai Papoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1597 | 1622 |
| Surface Elo | 1597 | 1622 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.91 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.45 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.09 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Kai Wehnelt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Felix Gill | 1 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Zdenek Kolar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Michele Ribecai | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Felix Gill | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | Radu Mihai Papoe |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |