| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.8% | 40% | +11.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.8% | 76% | +1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.7% | 54% | +11.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 65% | -9.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.9% | 25.4% | 29.7% |
| xgboost | 45.9% | 24.6% | 29.5% |
| logistic | 51.1% | 23.8% | 25.2% |
| Lens | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1722 | 1757 |
| Surface Elo | 1722 | 1757 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Monaco | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Le Mans | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Strasbourg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Auxerre | 5 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Rennes | 4 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Paris FC | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Sep | H | Auxerre | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Le Havre | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Toulouse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 May 2026 | Lyon | 0 - 4 | Lens |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Lens | 0 - 1 | Lyon |
| 04 May 2025 | Lyon | 1 - 2 | Lens |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Lens | 0 - 0 | Lyon |
| 03 Mar 2024 | Lyon | 0 - 3 | Lens |
| 02 Dec 2023 | Lens | 3 - 2 | Lyon |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Lyon | 2 - 1 | Lens |
| 02 Oct 2022 | Lens | 1 - 0 | Lyon |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Lens | 1 - 1 | Lyon |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Lyon | 2 - 1 | Lens |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.79 | 26.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.43 | 41.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |