| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win selected | 64.9% | 61% | +3.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| logistic | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Mika Petkovic | Francesco Forti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1472 | 1553 |
| Surface Elo | 1472 | 1553 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | A | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Francesco Forti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Juan Mano, Alejandro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Ryan Nijboer | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alejandro Juan Mano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Francesco Forti | 2 - 1 | Mika Petkovic |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.64 | 61.0% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 25 Sep 06:15 |