| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.6% | 30% | +13.0% | |
| DC | Home or away | 75.2% | 76% | -0.4% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 53.9% | 41% | +13.1% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 52% | +7.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.8% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.5% | 27.9% | 31.6% |
| xgboost | 35.3% | 23.8% | 41.0% |
| logistic | 38.5% | 28.8% | 32.6% |
| Lincoln | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1652 | 1601 |
| Surface Elo | 1652 | 1601 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Burnley | 4 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Burnley | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Cardiff | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Cardiff | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | QPR | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | QPR | 3 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Preston | 4 - 0 | W |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Birmingham | 1 - 0 | Lincoln |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Lincoln | 1 - 3 | Birmingham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.22 | 45.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.54 | 28.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.37 | 29.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.94 | 51.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.90 | 52.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |