| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.8% | 52% | +7.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 71.9% | 28.0% |
| logistic | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Joao Domingues | Andrej Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1503 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1503 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 5 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Vilius Gaubas | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Michael Geerts | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Vadym Ursu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Robin Bertrand | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Louis Wessels | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Louis Wessels | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Jun 2022 | Andrej Martin | 0 - 2 | Joao Domingues |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.81 | 55.2% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.94 | 51.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |