| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.0% | 65% | -16.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.1% | 90% | -13.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.6% | 84% | -19.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 62% | -6.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.8% | 24.5% | 34.7% |
| xgboost | 48.0% | 29.6% | 22.5% |
| logistic | 51.7% | 27.1% | 21.2% |
| Bristol Rvs | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1431 | 1443 |
| Surface Elo | 1431 | 1443 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Salford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Shrewsbury | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Barnet | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Crewe | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Exeter | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Barnet | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Barnet | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Walsall | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Crewe | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Swindon | 1 - 1 | Bristol Rvs |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 3 | Swindon |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Swindon | 1 - 1 | Bristol Rvs |
| 02 Oct 2021 | Bristol Rvs | 1 - 3 | Swindon |
| 23 Mar 2021 | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 1 | Swindon |
| 21 Nov 2020 | Swindon | 1 - 0 | Bristol Rvs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Oct 12:30 |