OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-12

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Monday 12 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · scheduled

Zizou Bergs 1.20 10:00 3.00 Carlos Alcaraz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	83.1%	93%	-10.4%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	17.1%	82.9%
logistic	16.5%	83.5%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Zizou Bergs	Carlos Alcaraz
Elo (pre-match)	1814	2297
Surface Elo	1814	2297
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	3.00
Form trend	-0.90	0.00
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Zizou Bergs: last 5

12 Oct	A	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Ignacio Buse	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Ignacio Buse	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	A	Vit Kopriva	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	A	Vit Kopriva	2 - 0	W

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5

12 Oct	H	Zizou Bergs	0 - 2	L
10 Oct	A	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W
06 Oct	H	Jiri Lehecka	2 - 0	W
06 Oct	H	Jiri Lehecka	2 - 0	W

Head to head

12 Oct 2026	Carlos Alcaraz	0 - 2	Zizou Bergs
24 Sep 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Zizou Bergs

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	10.20	9.8%	12 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.00	11.1%	12 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.20	10.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.08	92.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Zizou Bergs	12.00	8.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	12 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Zizou Bergs	13.50	7.4%	12 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Zizou Bergs	10.10	9.9%	12 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.40	10.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.40	10.6%	12 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.08	92.6%	12 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.58	10.4%	12 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.50	10.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.05	95.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.40	10.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.08	92.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Zizou Bergs	12.50	8.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.09	91.7%	12 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Zizou Bergs	13.50	7.4%	12 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.40	10.6%	12 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.07	93.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Zizou Bergs	10.45	9.6%	12 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.02	98.0%	12 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	8.50	11.8%	12 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.07	93.5%	12 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	9.90	10.1%	12 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.02	98.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Zizou Bergs	10.00	10.0%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.05	95.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	7.50	13.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.50	10.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.50	10.5%	12 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.00	11.1%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	10.50	9.5%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.05	95.2%	12 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Zizou Bergs	9.00	11.1%	12 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 18:16 UTC