| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.2% | 14% | +47.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 84.8% | 32% | +53.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 81.3% | 17% | +64.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 72% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 9.6% | 14.7% | 75.7% |
| xgboost | 22.7% | 17.1% | 60.2% |
| logistic | 9.9% | 18.9% | 71.2% |
| NAC Breda | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1436 | 1841 |
| Surface Elo | 1436 | 1841 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 132 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 7 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Graafschap | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 May | A | AZ Alkmaar | 3 - 3 | D |
| 10 May | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 May | A | Utrecht | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Apr | H | Ajax | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Vitesse | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Ajax | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Jan 2026 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 2 | NAC Breda |
| 22 Nov 2025 | NAC Breda | 0 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 25 Jan 2025 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 2 | NAC Breda |
| 09 Nov 2024 | NAC Breda | 0 - 3 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 09 Mar 2019 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 0 | NAC Breda |
| 29 Sep 2018 | NAC Breda | 0 - 2 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 31 Mar 2018 | PSV Eindhoven | 5 - 1 | NAC Breda |
| 20 Aug 2017 | NAC Breda | 1 - 4 | PSV Eindhoven |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.70 | 14.9% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.40 | 18.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.38 | 72.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 26 Sep 06:15 |