OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ England Championship · Saturday 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Swansea 2.00 2 - 1 1.20 Norwich
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 51.2%41%+9.7%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 75.8%69%+6.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 66.1%57%+9.6%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 69.5%58%+11.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 61.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson42.9%26.0%31.2%
xgboost46.5%31.2%22.3%
logistic48.5%25.8%25.7%
Inputs the models saw
SwanseaNorwich
Elo (pre-match)16231545
Surface Elo16231545
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.001.20
Form trend-0.200.30
Season points per game3.000.00
Season goals for / game2.003.00
Season goals against / game1.004.00
Rest days2019
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W3 W · 2 D
Swansea: last 5
19 SepALincoln2 - 1W
19 SepALincoln2 - 1W
12 SepHBurnley3 - 1W
08 SepASouthampton1 - 3L
05 SepHWrexham0 - 0D
Norwich: last 5
09 OctAReading3 - 2W
20 SepHBolton3 - 4L
20 SepHBolton3 - 4L
12 SepAMiddlesbrough3 - 4L
09 SepHBirmingham2 - 1W
Head to head
25 Apr 2026Norwich1 - 1Swansea
25 Oct 2025Swansea2 - 1Norwich
25 Jan 2025Norwich5 - 1Swansea
14 Sep 2024Swansea1 - 0Norwich
27 Apr 2024Norwich2 - 2Swansea
04 Oct 2023Swansea2 - 1Norwich
22 Apr 2023Norwich0 - 3Swansea
10 Dec 2022Swansea0 - 1Norwich
05 Feb 2021Swansea2 - 0Norwich
07 Nov 2020Norwich1 - 0Swansea
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.9034.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6527.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4341.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7457.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1546.5%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:10 UTC