| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.6% | 60% | -2.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| logistic | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1646 | 1567 |
| Surface Elo | 1646 | 1567 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 33 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Mirra Andreeva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Linda Noskova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Diana Shnaider | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Marta Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Talia Gibson | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Jeremy Zhang | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Mirra Andreeva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | Ekaterina Alexandrova |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | Ekaterina Alexandrova |
| 06 May 2024 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 2 - 0 | Ekaterina Alexandrova |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | Ekaterina Alexandrova |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 0 - 2 | Ekaterina Alexandrova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 01 Oct 06:15 |