| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 65% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.2% | 89% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.2% | 84% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 53% | +0.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 73.3% | 16.3% | 10.4% |
| xgboost | 62.7% | 19.2% | 18.1% |
| logistic | 66.6% | 22.3% | 11.1% |
| Monaco | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1781 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1781 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 14 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Sep | H | Lens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Strasbourg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Sep | A | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Marseille | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Mantova | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Mantova | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Spezia | 0 - 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 4 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Juve Stabia | 3 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.20 | 16.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.54 | 64.9% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.92 | 52.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |