| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.0% | 51% | +8.3% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or away | 83.9% | 81% | +2.6% | void |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.8% | 69% | -2.7% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.3% | 59% | -10.5% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 48.6% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.4% | 28.5% | 34.1% |
| xgboost | 33.8% | 25.8% | 40.4% |
| logistic | 32.6% | 29.7% | 37.7% |
| Watford | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1461 | 1540 |
| Surface Elo | 1461 | 1540 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Bristol City | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Stoke | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Preston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | West Brom | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Swansea | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Watford | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Lincoln | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Southampton | 1 - 4 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Burnley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Preston | 3 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | Watford |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Bristol City | 1 - 2 | Watford |
| 07 Nov 2025 | Watford | 1 - 1 | Bristol City |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Bristol City | 2 - 1 | Watford |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Watford | 1 - 0 | Bristol City |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | Watford |
| 26 Dec 2023 | Watford | 1 - 4 | Bristol City |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Watford | 2 - 0 | Bristol City |
| 12 Nov 2022 | Bristol City | 0 - 0 | Watford |
| 13 Feb 2021 | Watford | 6 - 0 | Bristol City |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.82 | 54.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.75 | 26.7% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |