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form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-11-06

🎾 tennis_atp_paris_masters · Friday 06 November 2026, 19:30 UTC · scheduled

Casper Ruud 1.80 19:30 1.80 Nuno Borges

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	62.4%	68%	-5.6%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	55.4%	44.5%
logistic	71.4%	28.6%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Casper Ruud	Nuno Borges
Elo (pre-match)	1980	1902
Surface Elo	1980	1902
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	-0.90	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	3 W · 0 D

Casper Ruud: last 5

06 Nov	H	Nuno Borges	2 - 0	W
05 Nov	A	Jan Lennard Struff	2 - 0	W
05 Nov	H	Rodrigo Alujas	2 - 0	W
03 Nov	H	Rafael Jodar	2 - 0	W
03 Nov	H	Rafael Jodar	2 - 0	W

Nuno Borges: last 5

06 Nov	A	Casper Ruud	0 - 2	L
05 Nov	H	Ignacio Buse	2 - 0	W
05 Nov	A	Ignacio Buse	2 - 0	W
04 Nov	H	Karen Khachanov	2 - 0	W
04 Nov	A	Karen Khachanov	2 - 0	W

Head to head

06 Nov 2026	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	Nuno Borges
28 Oct 2026	Nuno Borges	2 - 1	Casper Ruud
28 Oct 2026	Casper Ruud	1 - 2	Nuno Borges
27 Jul 2025	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	Nuno Borges
26 May 2025	Casper Ruud	1 - 3	Nuno Borges
19 Feb 2024	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	Nuno Borges

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.46	68.5%	06 Nov 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.80	35.7%	06 Nov 06:01
888sport	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.44	69.4%	06 Nov 06:01
888sport	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.41	70.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.55	39.2%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.52	65.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.84	35.2%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Casper Ruud	1.54	64.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Nuno Borges	2.92	34.2%	06 Nov 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.48	67.6%	06 Nov 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.76	36.2%	06 Nov 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.46	68.5%	06 Nov 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.47	68.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.85	35.1%	06 Nov 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.52	65.8%	06 Nov 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.73	36.6%	06 Nov 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.43	69.9%	06 Nov 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.52	65.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.86	35.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Casper Ruud	1.54	64.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Nuno Borges	2.92	34.2%	06 Nov 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.46	68.5%	06 Nov 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.48	67.6%	06 Nov 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.82	35.5%	06 Nov 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.38	72.5%	06 Nov 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.63	38.0%	06 Nov 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.47	68.0%	06 Nov 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.45	69.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.70	37.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.38	72.5%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.55	39.2%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.43	69.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.43	69.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.44	69.4%	06 Nov 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.75	36.4%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.46	68.5%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.70	37.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Casper Ruud	1.41	70.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Nuno Borges	2.50	40.0%	06 Nov 06:01

Generated 2026-11-12 21:54 UTC