| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.2% | 44% | +4.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.8% | 75% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.8% | 63% | -0.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 58% | -5.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.0% | 27.4% | 45.6% |
| xgboost | 34.4% | 32.7% | 32.8% |
| logistic | 32.7% | 29.3% | 38.0% |
| Ceuta | Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1459 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1459 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.63 | 1.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.25 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | A | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Castellon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Dos Hermanas CF 1971 | 0 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad B | 3 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad | 3 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Andorra | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Andorra | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Celta B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Celta B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Oviedo | 3 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.32 | 43.1% | 10 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 2.82 | 35.5% | 10 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.30 | 30.3% | 10 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.40 | 41.7% | 10 Oct 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.53 | 65.4% | 10 Oct 15:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.71 | 58.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |