| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.7% | 53% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 75.8% | 80% | -4.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.7% | 72% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 47% | +6.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.7% | 29.7% | 42.5% |
| xgboost | 23.4% | 23.7% | 53.0% |
| logistic | 24.5% | 28.1% | 47.4% |
| Parma | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1600 | 1705 |
| Surface Elo | 1600 | 1705 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 2.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 4 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 4 D |
| 02 Nov | A | Atalanta | 3 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Udinese | 0 - 0 | D |
| 28 Oct | H | Udinese | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Lazio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Lazio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Monza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Monza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 4 - 2 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 4 - 2 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cagliari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Feb 2026 | Bologna | 0 - 1 | Parma |
| 02 Nov 2025 | Parma | 1 - 3 | Bologna |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Parma | 2 - 0 | Bologna |
| 06 Oct 2024 | Bologna | 0 - 0 | Parma |
| 07 Feb 2021 | Parma | 0 - 3 | Bologna |
| 28 Sep 2020 | Bologna | 4 - 1 | Parma |
| 12 Jul 2020 | Parma | 2 - 2 | Bologna |
| 24 Nov 2019 | Bologna | 2 - 2 | Parma |
| 13 May 2019 | Bologna | 4 - 1 | Parma |
| 22 Dec 2018 | Parma | 0 - 0 | Bologna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.91 | 52.4% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.61 | 27.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.55 | 22.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |