OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-22

🎾 ATP Challenger Lisbon, Portugal Men Singles · Thursday 22 October 2026, 13:10 UTC · scheduled

Andrea Pellegrino 0.00 13:10 3.00 Francesco Passaro

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	61.6%	72%	-10.4%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	35.9%	64.1%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	39.2%	60.8%
logistic	35.2%	64.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Andrea Pellegrino	Francesco Passaro
Elo (pre-match)	1639	1840
Surface Elo	1639	1840
Form, last 5 (PPG)	0.00	3.00
Form trend	0.00	0.00
Season points per game	0.00	2.75
Season goals for / game	1.00	1.83
Season goals against / game	2.00	0.58
Rest days	9	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	1 W · 0 D

Andrea Pellegrino: last 5

20 Oct	H	Pol Martin Tiffon	1 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Svyatoslav Gulin	0 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Pol Martin Tiffon	1 - 0	W
13 Oct	H	Lorenzo Giustino	1 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Lorenzo Giustino	1 - 2	L

Francesco Passaro: last 5

20 Oct	H	Gastao Elias	1 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Gastao Elias	2 - 0	W
18 Oct	H	Zsombor Piros	2 - 1	W
17 Oct	H	Matej Dodig	2 - 1	W
16 Oct	A	Marco Trungelliti	2 - 1	W

Head to head

09 Jun 2025	Andrea Pellegrino	2 - 0	Francesco Passaro
18 Sep 2023	Andrea Pellegrino	2 - 1	Francesco Passaro
24 Jul 2023	Andrea Pellegrino	1 - 2	Francesco Passaro
12 Jun 2023	Andrea Pellegrino	2 - 0	Francesco Passaro

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.36	73.5%	22 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.95	33.9%	22 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:01 UTC