| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.7% | 84% | -35.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 74.8% | 99% | -24.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 63.8% | 98% | -33.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 71% | -12.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.5% | 29.4% | 38.1% |
| xgboost | 51.7% | 26.6% | 21.7% |
| logistic | 49.0% | 27.5% | 23.4% |
| Halifax | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1485 | 1512 |
| Surface Elo | 1485 | 1512 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Gateshead | 4 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Gateshead | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Solihull | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Solihull | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Boston Utd | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Bolton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Bolton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sheffield Utd | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Sheffield Utd | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Watford | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 13.00 | 7.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.70 | 14.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.19 | 84.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 13 Oct 06:15 |