| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.6% | 53% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 79% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.5% | 71% | -9.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 52% | +8.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 55.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.4% | 29.2% | 34.4% |
| xgboost | 49.6% | 22.9% | 27.5% |
| logistic | 41.2% | 30.3% | 28.5% |
| Crewe | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1488 | 1570 |
| Surface Elo | 1488 | 1570 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 3 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Blackpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bristol Rovers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Bristol Rvs | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Huddersfield | 0 - 5 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Swindon | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Crewe | 1 - 1 | Rochdale |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Rochdale | 1 - 2 | Crewe |
| 24 Apr 2021 | Crewe | 1 - 1 | Rochdale |
| 09 Jan 2021 | Rochdale | 3 - 3 | Crewe |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.88 | 53.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.91 | 52.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |