| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.5% | 64% | -2.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.9% | 89% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 80.0% | 83% | -3.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 49% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.6% | 25.0% | 18.3% |
| xgboost | 75.4% | 15.5% | 9.2% |
| logistic | 78.5% | 16.3% | 5.2% |
| York | Northampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1667 | 1279 |
| Surface Elo | 1667 | 1279 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 0.86 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 14 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | H | Gillingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Gillingham | 3 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Cambridge | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rotherham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Rotherham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Shrewsbury | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Newport County | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.25 | 19.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.10 | 16.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.40 | 22.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |