| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.0% | 82% | -33.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.2% | 94% | -14.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.5% | 92% | -22.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 60% | +2.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | 33% | +30.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 47.3% | 38.1% | 14.6% |
| logistic | 56.4% | 27.5% | 16.1% |
| Como | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1804 | 1601 |
| Surface Elo | 1804 | 1601 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 9 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 04 Sep | A | Genoa | 4 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Napoli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Udinese | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 May | A | Cremonese | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 May | H | Parma | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Monza | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Juventus | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Cagliari | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 May | H | Sassuolo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | A | Como | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 May 2026 | Como | 1 - 0 | Parma |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Parma | 0 - 0 | Como |
| 03 May 2025 | Parma | 0 - 1 | Como |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Como | 1 - 1 | Parma |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Como | 1 - 1 | Parma |
| 20 Oct 2023 | Parma | 2 - 1 | Como |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Como | 2 - 0 | Parma |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Parma | 1 - 0 | Como |
| 06 Apr 2022 | Parma | 4 - 3 | Como |
| 28 Nov 2021 | Como | 1 - 1 | Parma |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 15.00 | 6.7% | 14 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 6.00 | 16.7% | 14 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.20 | 83.3% | 14 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 14 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 14 Sep 17:30 |