| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 77.7% | 93% | -15.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 84.4% | 15.6% |
| logistic | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Tuncay Duran | Makhlouf, Nazim | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1518 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1518 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.69 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | H | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Oct | H | Mahmoud chetouane | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Andrea Bacaloni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Makhlouf, Nazim | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Nicolas John Jadoun | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Rahmani, Kasra | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Cesar Bouchelaghem | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Diogo Coelho | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Makhlouf, Nazim | 1 - 0 | Tuncay Duran |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.00 | 14.3% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.07 | 93.5% | 05 Nov 06:15 |