| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.6% | 71% | -5.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| logistic | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| Marco Cecchinato | Olle Wallin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1701 | 1494 |
| Surface Elo | 1701 | 1494 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 18 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Olle Wallin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Marco Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | H | Henri Squire | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Marco Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Tiago Cacao | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Lukas Neumayer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Pedro Rodenas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Marco Cecchinato | 0 - 2 | Olle Wallin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 07 Oct 06:15 |