| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 78.1% | 84% | -6.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 71.7% | 28.2% |
| logistic | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| Carlo Alberto Caniato | Daniel Siniakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1655 | 1390 |
| Surface Elo | 1655 | 1390 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.45 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.64 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Max Wiskandt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Francesco Passaro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Vrba, Jakub | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Pietro Marino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Daniele Rapagnetta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | Daniel Siniakov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.19 | 84.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |