OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ England Premier League · Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Fulham 1.60 1 - 1 1.20 Newcastle
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.7%47%+3.9%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 76.1%73%+2.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 67.0%63%+3.7%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 58.6%43%+15.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 55.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson38.5%26.3%35.2%
xgboost59.2%22.7%18.0%
logistic52.2%26.6%21.2%
Inputs the models saw
FulhamNewcastle
Elo (pre-match)16881678
Surface Elo16881678
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.601.20
Form trend-0.300.30
Season points per game1.601.50
Season goals for / game1.001.00
Season goals against / game0.800.50
Rest days64
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W6 W · 1 D
Fulham: last 5
03 NovAWorthing1 - 2L
31 OctAAston Villa1 - 1D
31 OctAAston Villa1 - 1D
28 OctHCrystal Palace0 - 1L
24 OctACoventry1 - 0W
Newcastle: last 5
02 NovHEverton0 - 1L
29 OctAEverton1 - 3L
25 OctACrystal Palace2 - 0W
25 OctACrystal Palace2 - 0W
17 OctHAston Villa0 - 1L
Head to head
24 May 2026Fulham2 - 0Newcastle
25 Oct 2025Newcastle2 - 1Fulham
01 Feb 2025Newcastle1 - 2Fulham
21 Sep 2024Fulham3 - 1Newcastle
06 Apr 2024Fulham0 - 1Newcastle
16 Dec 2023Newcastle3 - 0Fulham
15 Jan 2023Newcastle1 - 0Fulham
01 Oct 2022Fulham1 - 4Newcastle
23 May 2021Fulham0 - 2Newcastle
19 Dec 2020Newcastle1 - 1Fulham
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.4628.9%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7826.5%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1546.5%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6361.4%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3542.5%06 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:03 UTC