| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.3% | 73% | -21.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 39.5% | 60.4% |
| logistic | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Etienne Donnet | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1608 | 1546 |
| Surface Elo | 1608 | 1546 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Patrick Brady | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Matteo Martineau | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Amir Omarkhanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Max Schoenhaus | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mika Brunold | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Etienne Donnet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Etienne Donnet | 1 - 2 | Matteo Martineau |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.37 | 73.0% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 15 Oct 06:15 |