| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.8% | 53% | +0.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.2% | 81% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.1% | 72% | +0.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 53% | +6.6% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.8% | 29.5% | 24.6% |
| xgboost | 60.3% | 23.8% | 15.9% |
| logistic | 56.0% | 26.3% | 17.7% |
| Ascoli | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1462 | 1396 |
| Surface Elo | 1462 | 1396 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Pisa | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sudtirol | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Pescara | 2 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sudtirol | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | SC Trestina | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Palermo | 2 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Palermo | 2 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Modena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Modena | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Arezzo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 May 2021 | Ascoli | 2 - 0 | Empoli |
| 30 Dec 2020 | Empoli | 1 - 1 | Ascoli |
| 13 Jul 2020 | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | Empoli |
| 07 Dec 2019 | Empoli | 2 - 1 | Ascoli |
| 10 Feb 2018 | Ascoli | 1 - 2 | Empoli |
| 16 Sep 2017 | Empoli | 3 - 0 | Ascoli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.10 | 24.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.89 | 52.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.87 | 53.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.87 | 53.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |