| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.1% | 69% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.9% | 88% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.2% | 85% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 62% | -5.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.3% | 24.5% | 14.2% |
| xgboost | 66.4% | 19.6% | 14.0% |
| logistic | 66.6% | 20.8% | 12.6% |
| Lille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1773 | 1554 |
| Surface Elo | 1773 | 1554 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Troyes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | A | Toulouse | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Angers | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Toulouse | 2 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Angers | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Brest | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Lyon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | Monaco | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 May 2026 | Lille | 1 - 1 | Le Havre |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Le Havre | 0 - 1 | Lille |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Lille | 1 - 2 | Le Havre |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Le Havre | 0 - 3 | Lille |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Lille | 3 - 0 | Le Havre |
| 01 Oct 2023 | Le Havre | 0 - 2 | Lille |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.11 | 14.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.13 | 19.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.61 | 62.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |