| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.4% | 49% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.6% | 77% | +2.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.4% | 66% | +5.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 44% | +13.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 57.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.1% | 29.9% | 26.0% |
| xgboost | 60.2% | 25.6% | 14.2% |
| logistic | 51.4% | 26.6% | 22.0% |
| Brescia | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1447 | 1427 |
| Surface Elo | 1447 | 1427 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.20 |
| Rest days | 542 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 06 Nov | H | FC Arzignano Valchiampo | 3 - 2 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | US Folgore Caratese | 4 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | AC Renate | 0 - 0 | D |
| 28 Oct | H | Cittadella | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Cittadella | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Catanzaro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Mantova | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Sudtirol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Sudtirol | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Feb 2019 | Padova | 1 - 1 | Brescia |
| 07 Oct 2018 | Brescia | 4 - 1 | Padova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.97 | 50.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |