| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 80.8% | 93% | -12.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 92.9% | 99% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 91.9% | 99% | -7.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90.0% | 89% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.6% | 33% | +27.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 86.1% | 8.5% | 5.4% |
| xgboost | 81.2% | 10.7% | 8.1% |
| logistic | 75.1% | 17.2% | 7.7% |
| Barcelona | Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1929 | 1603 |
| Surface Elo | 1929 | 1603 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Sep | A | Levante | 4 - 2 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Valencia | 5 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Vallecano | 5 - 2 | W |
| 27 Aug | H | Athletic Club | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | Elche | 5 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Vallecano | 2 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | Getafe | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Villarreal | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 26.00 | 3.9% | 16 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 15.00 | 6.7% | 16 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.05 | 95.2% | 16 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.10 | 90.9% | 16 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 7.00 | 14.3% | 16 Sep 20:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 31.82 | 3.1% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 16.60 | 6.0% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.08 | 92.6% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.11 | 90.1% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 7.10 | 14.1% | 16 Sep 06:15 |