| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.6% | 60% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| logistic | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| Tommy Paul | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1997 | 1852 |
| Surface Elo | 1997 | 1852 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.88 | 1.22 |
| Rest days | 3 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 5 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Corentin Moutet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Benjamin Bonzi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Rei Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Rei Sakamoto | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| 10 Oct 2022 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| 04 Oct 2021 | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | Tommy Paul |
| 03 May 2021 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Tommy Paul |
| 21 Sep 2020 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Tommy Paul |
| 30 Jul 2018 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | Tommy Paul |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 26 Oct 06:15 |