| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 77.9% | 68% | +9.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 63.7% | 22.7% |
| xgboost | 82.0% | 17.2% |
| logistic | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| Colorado Avalanche | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1600 | 1379 |
| Surface Elo | 1600 | 1379 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 0.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 5.75 | 2.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Calgary Flames | 7 - 3 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Winnipeg Jets | 2 - 3 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | St. Louis Blues | 6 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Los Angeles Kings | 8 - 4 | W |
| 27 May | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 3 - 4 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Nashville Predators | 5 - 4 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Ottawa Senators | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | New York Islanders | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 3 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 4 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 19 Mar 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2 - 1 | Colorado Avalanche |
| 09 Mar 2025 | Colorado Avalanche | 7 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 10 Oct 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 10 Oct 20:20 |