| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 71.5% | 74% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.9% | 71.0% |
| logistic | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| Facundo Mena | Max Alcala Gurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1594 | 1673 |
| Surface Elo | 1594 | 1673 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 2.18 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.11 | 1.45 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.78 | 0.45 |
| Rest days | 19 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolas Kicker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Andres Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Andy Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | Max Alcala Gurri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.35 | 74.1% | 09 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.05 | 32.8% | 09 Nov 06:15 |