| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.3% | 43% | +10.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.3% | 50.6% |
| logistic | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1672 | 1582 |
| Surface Elo | 1672 | 1582 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 9 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Yosuke Watanuki | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Dane Sweeny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Alex Molcan | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |