| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.6% | 44% | +17.2% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| logistic | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Matteo Arnaldi | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1798 | 1671 |
| Surface Elo | 1798 | 1671 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 30 | 23 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W 路 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | James Duckworth | 1 - 3 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | Martin Landaluce | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Aug | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Aug | A | Fabian Marozsan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Matteo Arnaldi | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | JiSung Nam | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Frances Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Aleksandar Vukic | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | Rei Sakamoto |
| 01 Oct 2025 | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | Rei Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| 888sport | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.67 | 59.9% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.25 | 44.4% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| BetAnything | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.65 | 60.6% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.25 | 44.4% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.63 | 61.4% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.32 | 43.1% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.74 | 57.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.36 | 42.4% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Rei Sakamoto | 1.75 | 57.1% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.24 | 44.6% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.69 | 59.2% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| GTbets | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.23 | 44.8% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| GTbets | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.71 | 58.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.32 | 43.1% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.74 | 57.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.36 | 42.4% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Rei Sakamoto | 1.75 | 57.1% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.21 | 45.2% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.65 | 60.6% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.26 | 44.2% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.71 | 58.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.05 | 48.8% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.64 | 61.0% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.67 | 59.9% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| Tipico | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Tipico | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.65 | 60.6% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.14 | 46.7% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.71 | 58.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.14 | 46.7% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.71 | 58.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| William Hill | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.67 | 59.9% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.25 | 44.4% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.68 | 59.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Matteo Arnaldi | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Sep 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Rei Sakamoto | 1.64 | 61.0% | 30 Sep 06:00 |