| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.1% | 67% | -1.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 88.0% | 89% | -0.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 83.4% | 85% | -1.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 65% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.8% | 21.9% | 17.3% |
| xgboost | 50.6% | 26.1% | 23.3% |
| logistic | 49.3% | 25.7% | 25.0% |
| Norwich | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1565 | 1534 |
| Surface Elo | 1565 | 1534 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.86 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.86 | 1.71 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Middlesbrough | 3 - 4 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | Birmingham | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Sep | A | Stoke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Burnley | 4 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Cardiff | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | West Ham | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Millwall | 0 - 4 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Sheffield Utd | 2 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Lincoln | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Feb 2019 | Bolton | 0 - 4 | Norwich |
| 08 Dec 2018 | Norwich | 3 - 2 | Bolton |
| 24 Feb 2018 | Norwich | 0 - 0 | Bolton |
| 04 Nov 2017 | Bolton | 2 - 1 | Norwich |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 6.50 | 15.4% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.39 | 71.9% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.44 | 69.4% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 20 Sep 13:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.45 | 15.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.10 | 19.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.47 | 68.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |