OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Crewe 1.80 3 - 2 2.20 Rochdale
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.4%54%-5.0%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 76.3%82%-5.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 65.7%73%-7.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 58.9%51%+7.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 54.5%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson49.4%27.1%23.5%
xgboost46.5%28.1%25.5%
logistic41.4%30.5%28.1%
Inputs the models saw
CreweRochdale
Elo (pre-match)14881570
Surface Elo14881570
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.802.20
Form trend-0.600.00
Season points per game1.801.40
Season goals for / game1.201.10
Season goals against / game0.701.20
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W0 W · 3 D
Crewe: last 5
10 OctASwindon1 - 0W
10 OctASwindon1 - 0W
06 OctABlackpool2 - 2D
03 OctHBristol Rovers3 - 1W
03 OctHBristol Rvs3 - 1W
Rochdale: last 5
10 OctATranmere1 - 1D
10 OctATranmere1 - 1D
06 OctAHuddersfield0 - 5L
03 OctHSwindon1 - 0W
03 OctHSwindon1 - 0W
Head to head
25 Feb 2023Crewe1 - 1Rochdale
30 Jul 2022Rochdale1 - 2Crewe
24 Apr 2021Crewe1 - 1Rochdale
09 Jan 2021Rochdale3 - 3Crewe
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.7526.7%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.8653.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.9351.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9351.8%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.9025.6%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6027.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.8952.9%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8454.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9351.8%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC