OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Crystal Palace 1.40 0 - 2 0.80 Newcastle
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 42.8%34%+8.4%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.8%77%-1.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 54.5%47%+7.9%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60.2%64%-4.2%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 60.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson34.6%26.1%39.3%
xgboost43.4%26.1%30.5%
logistic36.9%29.9%33.2%
Inputs the models saw
Crystal PalaceNewcastle
Elo (pre-match)16651679
Surface Elo16651679
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.400.80
Form trend0.300.20
Season points per game1.001.14
Season goals for / game1.291.43
Season goals against / game2.432.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W4 W · 4 D
Crystal Palace: last 5
22 OctABesiktas2 - 2D
18 OctABrighton0 - 5L
18 OctABrighton0 - 5L
15 OctALyon2 - 3L
11 OctHNottingham Forest3 - 1W
Newcastle: last 5
17 OctHAston Villa0 - 1L
17 OctHAston Villa0 - 1L
12 OctACoventry1 - 4L
19 SepHHull2 - 1W
14 SepALeeds1 - 4L
Head to head
12 Apr 2026Crystal Palace2 - 1Newcastle
04 Jan 2026Newcastle2 - 0Crystal Palace
16 Apr 2025Newcastle5 - 0Crystal Palace
30 Nov 2024Crystal Palace1 - 1Newcastle
24 Apr 2024Crystal Palace2 - 0Newcastle
21 Oct 2023Newcastle4 - 0Crystal Palace
21 Jan 2023Crystal Palace0 - 0Newcastle
03 Sep 2022Newcastle0 - 0Crystal Palace
20 Apr 2022Newcastle1 - 0Crystal Palace
23 Oct 2021Crystal Palace1 - 1Newcastle
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.6038.5%25 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2draw3.5028.6%25 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2home2.6038.5%25 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6759.9%25 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.2045.5%25 Oct 14:00
SportyBet1X2away2.4540.8%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7326.8%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.9134.4%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5464.9%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.5539.2%25 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:58 UTC