| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.7% | 80% | -11.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| logistic | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Miguel Damas | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1549 | 1731 |
| Surface Elo | 1549 | 1731 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Johan Nikles | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Johan Nikles | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Palomar, Xavi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Lukas Neumayer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Miguel Damas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Matej Dodig | 2 - 0 | Miguel Damas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.25 | 80.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.75 | 26.7% | 08 Oct 06:15 |