| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.2% | 49% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.4% | 77% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.8% | 66% | -9.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 62% | +0.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.2% | 25.6% | 32.2% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1702 | 1728 |
| Surface Elo | 1702 | 1728 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Bourg Peronnas | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Lyon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Marseille | 3 - 2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Nice | 3 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Troyes | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Monaco | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Troyes | 6 - 2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Lens | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | Marseille | 0 - 4 | L |
| 17 May | H | Monaco | 5 - 4 | W |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Strasbourg | 0 - 0 | Paris FC |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Paris FC | 2 - 3 | Strasbourg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.10 | 24.4% | 19 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 19 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 19 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 19 Sep 16:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 19 Sep 16:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.82 | 26.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.93 | 25.4% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.98 | 50.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 19 Sep 06:16 |