| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.0% | 41% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 72.8% | 74% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.2% | 59% | -2.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.2% | 61% | -0.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 55.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.2% | 30.4% | 27.5% |
| xgboost | 32.7% | 30.2% | 37.1% |
| logistic | 32.7% | 30.5% | 36.8% |
| Padova | Virtus Entella | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1385 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1385 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Carrarese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Carrarese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 0 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Palermo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Palermo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Vicenza | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Cremonese | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Cremonese | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Virtus Entella | 4 - 1 | Padova |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | Padova |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Padova | 2 - 1 | Virtus Entella |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.66 | 60.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |