| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.3% | 59% | -2.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.3% | 85% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 75.7% | 79% | -3.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 54% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.3% | 25.8% | 24.9% |
| xgboost | 66.1% | 19.9% | 14.1% |
| logistic | 59.9% | 23.8% | 16.3% |
| Ac Milan | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1786 | 1674 |
| Surface Elo | 1786 | 1674 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 2 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 28 Oct | H | Catanzaro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | Pavonese | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Udinese | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Udinese | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Club Milano SSD | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Cagliari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cagliari | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Inter | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Inter | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Lecce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Feb 2026 | Bologna | 0 - 3 | Ac Milan |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Ac Milan | 1 - 0 | Bologna |
| 09 May 2025 | Ac Milan | 3 - 1 | Bologna |
| 27 Feb 2025 | Bologna | 2 - 1 | Ac Milan |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Ac Milan | 2 - 2 | Bologna |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Bologna | 0 - 2 | Ac Milan |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Bologna | 1 - 1 | Ac Milan |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Ac Milan | 2 - 0 | Bologna |
| 04 Apr 2022 | Ac Milan | 0 - 0 | Bologna |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Bologna | 2 - 4 | Ac Milan |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.50 | 18.2% | 28 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 28 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 28 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 28 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 28 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.06 | 19.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.95 | 25.3% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |