| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.5% | 49% | +13.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 33.2% | 66.7% |
| logistic | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Samuele Pieri | Andrej Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1537 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1537 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 43 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrej Martin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Filip Cristian Jianu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | H | Petr Brunclik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Andrej Martin | 0 - 2 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 29 Sep 06:15 |