| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.0% | 78% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| logistic | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1651 | 1405 |
| Surface Elo | 1651 | 1405 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 36 | 78 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Andy Andrade | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Jun | H | Nicolas Villalon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.35 | 29.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |