OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ France Ligue 1 · Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Monaco 2.60 2 - 2 1.00 Toulouse
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.0%61%-6.3%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 78.9%83%-4.5%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 70.9%78%-7.4%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.0%63%-8.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 55.8%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson55.8%22.6%21.6%
xgboost51.9%24.7%23.4%
logistic57.9%23.9%18.3%
Inputs the models saw
MonacoToulouse
Elo (pre-match)17811640
Surface Elo17811640
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.601.00
Form trend0.20-0.60
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2221
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W2 W · 2 D
Monaco: last 5
03 OctHPisa2 - 0W
18 SepHLens2 - 1W
12 SepAStrasbourg1 - 1D
04 SepAParis Saint Germain2 - 1W
30 AugHMarseille2 - 0W
Toulouse: last 5
19 SepHLe Havre3 - 2W
12 SepALorient2 - 2D
03 SepHLille0 - 1L
29 AugABrest2 - 2D
22 AugHLyon0 - 2L
Head to head
25 Apr 2026Toulouse2 - 2Monaco
25 Oct 2025Monaco1 - 0Toulouse
07 Mar 2025Toulouse1 - 1Monaco
07 Dec 2024Monaco2 - 0Toulouse
18 Feb 2024Monaco1 - 2Toulouse
20 Dec 2023Toulouse1 - 2Monaco
03 Jun 2023Monaco1 - 2Toulouse
06 Nov 2022Toulouse0 - 2Monaco
04 Dec 2019Toulouse1 - 2Monaco
02 Feb 2019Monaco2 - 1Toulouse
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.3918.6%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.5222.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6361.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5863.3%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC