| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 82.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 16.1% | 83.8% |
| logistic | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| Ben Shelton | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2030 | 2344 |
| Surface Elo | 2030 | 2344 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.63 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Nov | A | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov | A | Ben Shelton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | A | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Casper Ruud | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | A | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Ben Shelton | 0 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 08 Sep 2026 | Ben Shelton | 3 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 26 May 2025 | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Ben Shelton | 0 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 07 Aug 2023 | Ben Shelton | 0 - 2 | Carlos Alcaraz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||