| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.1% | 66% | -14.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 53.0% | 46.9% |
| logistic | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1958 | 1930 |
| Surface Elo | 1958 | 1930 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Coleman Wong | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Coleman Wong | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 13 Nov 2023 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 3 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 27 Feb 2023 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 14 Nov 2022 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 16 Aug 2021 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 08 Feb 2021 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 3 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 3 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 16 Sep 2019 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| 12 Aug 2019 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | Daniil Medvedev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |