OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Paderborn 0.80 1 - 0 1.80 Hamburg
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 45.2%43%+2.3%✓ hit
DCHome or away 76.2%76%+0.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 56.5%58%-1.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.3%63%-5.2%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 55.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson40.6%24.9%34.6%
xgboost41.0%24.9%34.2%
logistic40.9%28.0%31.1%
Inputs the models saw
PaderbornHamburg
Elo (pre-match)15441598
Surface Elo15441598
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.80
Form trend-0.20-0.90
Season points per game0.503.00
Season goals for / game1.002.00
Season goals against / game2.001.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Paderborn: last 5
17 OctAWerder Bremen2 - 2D
17 OctAWerder Bremen2 - 2D
10 OctHStuttgart0 - 2L
10 OctHStuttgart0 - 2L
30 SepADC United1 - 0W
Hamburg: last 5
17 OctHStuttgart1 - 0W
17 OctHStuttgart1 - 0W
10 OctAHoffenheim3 - 2W
10 OctAHoffenheim3 - 2W
04 OctHCopenhagen2 - 0W
Head to head
02 Mar 2025Paderborn2 - 0Hamburg
28 Sep 2024Hamburg2 - 2Paderborn
10 May 2024Paderborn1 - 0Hamburg
09 Dec 2023Hamburg1 - 2Paderborn
05 May 2023Hamburg2 - 2Paderborn
30 Oct 2022Paderborn2 - 3Hamburg
02 Apr 2022Hamburg1 - 2Paderborn
22 Oct 2021Paderborn1 - 2Hamburg
30 Jan 2021Hamburg3 - 1Paderborn
28 Sep 2020Paderborn3 - 4Hamburg
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.9933.4%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8226.2%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3642.4%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5763.7%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%23 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:20 UTC