| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.2% | 61% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.9% | 49.0% |
| logistic | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Matteo Berrettini | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1865 | 1954 |
| Surface Elo | 1865 | 1954 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Ugo Humbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Sep | A | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Sebastian Baez | 3 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct 2026 | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Brandon Nakashima | 1 - 3 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.64 | 61.0% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |