| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 87.4% | 97% | -9.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| logistic | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Elena Rybakina | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2027 | 1532 |
| Surface Elo | 2027 | 1532 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 34 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Alina Charaeva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Coco Gauff | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Qinwen Zheng | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Yuliia Starodubtseva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Sonay Kartal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Elena Rybakina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Yuliia Starodubtseva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Alina Charaeva | 2 - 1 | Elena Rybakina |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 13.50 | 7.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.03 | 97.1% | 03 Oct 06:15 |